It actually looks like Rybka's downfall began the move before. The expected move was ...a2, Rybka played ...Rb8. Houdini evaluates the position nearly a half-pawn in Shredder's favor at that point already if 96. f4. Critter is even more optimistic, giving Shredder about a half-pawn before ...Rb8 was played, and 1.3+ and rising afterward). DS12 (Mac) considers itself already a pawn ahead, regardless of what Black plays. Rybka's move simply makes matters worse.BB+ wrote:I might point out that I analysed this with both IvanHoe and ComStock with all the TripleBases, and in each case backed up the score after 96...a2 to 0.00 (after playing forward to a draw), and the same with a +6 score after 96...Nxc6. Whether or not this is 100% reliable (due to transpositions, nullmove, and whatnot) is another issue. [With 96...Kf7, the scores hovered in the +2 range, though many of these were from RBP vs RN, which might well be drawn -- if I followed lines were pawns were not exchanged, it was still unclear, and I lost interest after knowing the results from the other two moves]. From the TCEC data, Rybka was playing at about 5 seconds per move from moves 96-100 (after using 46s at move 95 -- both had 11m left until Shredder used 8 minutes on 101. g5), and then suddenly took a 13-second think at move 102 and realised White was +3.Rybka 4 appears to analyze ...a2 as second choice for a short while, but then discards it entirely (...Kf7 takes its place). Houdini would have played ...a2. Naum 4.2 agrees with Houdini. HIARCS can't decide between ...Kf7 and ...Nxc6 for a while, although it comes around at around depth 22, discarding Nxc6 and evaluating both ...Kf7 and ...a2 at around 1.25. Rybka 3 reaches an identical conclusion as her big sister. Stockfish agrees with Rybka in this matter, as well.
It really is amazing to me how many of these get decided in the later stages, though I think some of the Freestyle guys had made similar comments (that an error in the middlegame might change the score by -0.25 or -0.5, but in the endgame would simply lose).
Rybka had time, so I assume it just missed the point.
Martin, where does the evaluation displayed on the site come from? White? Or is there a 3rd engine providing evaluation commentary?
Jeremy