Monte Carlo

[BB+]

From http://rybkaforum.net/cgi-bin/rybkaforu ... l?tid=3061
LK: "Any positions where Rybka gets the wrong answer are more likely to get the right answer with the randomizer. But in general, if Rybka plays the wrong move because she can't see deeply enough, I would think that whether the randomizer plays the right move is, well, random. But if Rybka plays the wrong move because her evaluation function is missing some key principle, the randomizer is likely to choose the right move, unless it is necessary to know the principle to find the right moves. For example, before Rybka knew the principle of good and bad bishops, she would probably not choose a trade that left her with good knight against bad bishop if the trade was otherwise unattractive. But the randomizer would probably win many more games with the knight vs. bad bishop than without this advantage, even though Rybka did not know that this was an advantage."

I especially like the "before Rybka knew the principle of good and bad bishops", given some recent discussions.

Another link is http://rybkaforum.net/cgi-bin/rybkaforu ... l?tid=3020

[kingliveson]

r1bqkb1r/ppp2ppp/2n2n2/3pp3/3P4/2P1B2P/PP2PPP1/RN1QKBNR w - - 0 1

Analysis by IvanHoe 9.49b x64 Analyzer:

1.Nf3 Bd6 2.dxe5 Nxe5 3.Nbd2 Bf5 4.Qa4+ Qd7
= (0.25) Depth: 6 00:00:00 6kN

1.Nf3 Bd6 2.dxe5 Nxe5 3.Nbd2 Bf5 4.Qa4+ Qd7
= (0.25) Depth: 6 00:00:00 6kN

1.Nf3 Bd6 2.dxe5 Nxe5 3.Nbd2 Bd7 4.Nxe5 Bxe5 5.Nf3
= (0.17 --) Depth: 7 00:00:00 9kN

1.Nf3 Bd6 2.dxe5 Nxe5 3.Nbd2 Bd7 4.Nxe5 Bxe5 5.Nf3
= (0.09 --) Depth: 7 00:00:00 12kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Bd7 3.Nd2 Bd6 4.Nxd7 Qxd7 5.Qa4
= (0.22) Depth: 7 00:00:00 14kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Bd7 3.Nd2 Bd6 4.Nxd7 Qxd7 5.Qa4
= (0.22) Depth: 7 00:00:00 14kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Bd7 3.Nd2 Bd6 4.Nxd7 Qxd7 5.Qa4
= (0.22) Depth: 8 00:00:00 16kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Bd7 3.Nd2 Bd6 4.Nxd7 Qxd7 5.Qa4
= (0.22) Depth: 8 00:00:00 16kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Bd7 3.Nd2 Bd6 4.Nxd7 Qxd7 5.Qa4 Kf8
+/= (0.30 ++) Depth: 9 00:00:00 21kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Bd7 3.Nd2 Bd6 4.Nxd7 Qxd7 5.Qb3 Rb8
+/= (0.33) Depth: 9 00:00:00 25kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Bd7 3.Nd2 Bd6 4.Nxd7 Qxd7 5.Qb3 Rb8
+/= (0.33) Depth: 9 00:00:00 28kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Bd7 3.Nd2 Bd6 4.Nxd7 Qxd7 5.g4 Kf8 6.Qb3 Rb8
= (0.25 --) Depth: 10 00:00:00 139kN

1.dxe5 Nxe5 2.Nd2 Bd6 3.g4 Nc6 4.Qb3 h6 5.Ngf3 Kf8 6.c4 Nb4 7.cxd5 Nfxd5
= (0.22) Depth: 10 00:00:00 182kN

1.dxe5 Nxe5 2.Nd2 Bd6 3.g4 Nc6 4.Qb3 h6 5.Ngf3 Kf8 6.c4 Nb4 7.cxd5 Nfxd5
= (0.22) Depth: 10 00:00:00 182kN

1.dxe5 Nxe5 2.Nd2 Bd6 3.Ngf3 Nxf3+ 4.Nxf3 c5 5.g4 h6 6.Qd3 Kf8 7.Rd1 Kg8
= (0.16) Depth: 11 00:00:00 229kN

1.dxe5 Nxe5 2.Nd2 Bd6 3.Ngf3 Nxf3+ 4.Nxf3 c5 5.g4 h6 6.Qd3 Kf8 7.Rd1 Kg8
= (0.16) Depth: 11 00:00:00 274kN

1.dxe5 Nxe5 2.Nd2 Bd6 3.Ngf3 Nxf3+ 4.Nxf3 c5 5.g4 h6 6.Qd3 Kf8 7.Rd1 Kg8
= (0.24 ++) Depth: 12 00:00:00 299kN

1.dxe5 Nxe5 2.Nd2 Bd6 3.Ngf3 Nxf3+ 4.Nxf3 c5 5.g4 h6 6.Qd3 Kf8 7.Rd1 Kg8
= (0.16) Depth: 12 00:00:00 323kN

1.dxe5 Nxe5 2.Nd2 Bd6 3.Ngf3 Nxf3+ 4.Nxf3 c5 5.g4 h6 6.Qd3 Kf8 7.Rd1 Kg8
= (0.16) Depth: 12 00:00:00 333kN

1.dxe5 Nxe5 2.Nd2 Bd6 3.Ngf3 Nxf3+ 4.Nxf3 c5 5.g4 h6 6.Qd3 Kf8 7.Rd1 Kg8
= (0.08 --) Depth: 13 00:00:00 714kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Bd6 3.Nxc6 bxc6 4.Nd2 h5 5.c4 Rb8 6.c5 Be7 7.Qc2 Kf8
= (0.11) Depth: 13 00:00:00 819kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Bd6 3.Nxc6 bxc6 4.Nd2 h5 5.c4 Rb8 6.c5 Be7 7.Qc2 Kf8
= (0.11) Depth: 13 00:00:00 819kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Qd6 3.Bf4 Qe6 4.Nxc6 Qxc6 5.g4 Bd7 6.Nd2 Bd6 7.Bxd6 Qxd6 8.Qb3 Rb8
= (0.08) Depth: 14 00:00:00 1019kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Qd6 3.Bf4 Qe6 4.Nxc6 Qxc6 5.g4 Bd7 6.Nd2 Bd6 7.Bxd6 Qxd6 8.Qb3 Rb8
= (0.08) Depth: 14 00:00:00 1182kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Qd6 3.Bf4 Qe6 4.Nxc6 Qxc6 5.g4 h6 6.Nd2 Bd6 7.Be5 Kf8 8.Bxf6 gxf6 9.e3
= (0.11) Depth: 15 00:00:00 1354kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Qd6 3.Bf4 Qe6 4.Nxc6 Qxc6 5.g4 h6 6.Nd2 Bd6 7.Be5 Kf8 8.Bxf6 gxf6 9.e3
= (0.11) Depth: 15 00:00:00 1536kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Qd6 3.Bf4 Qe6 4.Na3 Bxa3 5.bxa3 Kf8 6.Qa4 Nxe5 7.Bxe5 Kg8 8.Bxc7 e3 9.f3 Bd7 10.Qb4 Qa6 11.g4
= (0.07) Depth: 16 00:00:00 2115kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Qd6 3.Bf4 Qe6 4.Na3 Bxa3 5.bxa3 Kf8 6.Qa4 Nxe5 7.Bxe5 Kg8 8.Bxc7 e3 9.f3 Bd7 10.Qb4 Qa6 11.g4
= (0.07) Depth: 16 00:00:00 2716kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Qd6 3.Bf4 Qe6 4.Na3 Bxa3 5.bxa3 Kf8 6.Qa4 Nxe5 7.Bxe5 Kg8 8.Bxc7 e3 9.f3 Bd7 10.Qb4 Qa6 11.g4
= (0.07) Depth: 17 00:00:00 3285kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Qd6 3.Bf4 Qe6 4.Na3 Bxa3 5.bxa3 Kf8 6.Qa4 Nxe5 7.Bxe5 Kg8 8.Bxc7 e3 9.f3 Bd7 10.Qb4 Qa6 11.g4
= (0.07) Depth: 17 00:00:01 4109kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Qd6 3.Bf4 Qe6 4.Na3 Bxa3 5.bxa3 Kf8 6.Qa4 Nxe5 7.Bxe5 Kg8 8.Bxc7 e3 9.f3 Bd7 10.Qb4 Qa6 11.g4
= (0.07) Depth: 18 00:00:01 5389kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Qd6 3.Bf4 Qe6 4.Na3 Bxa3 5.bxa3 Kf8 6.Qa4 Nxe5 7.Bxe5 Kg8 8.Bxc7 e3 9.f3 Bd7 10.Qb4 Qa6 11.g4
= (0.07) Depth: 18 00:00:01 7133kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Qd6 3.Qa4 a6 4.Nxc6 Bd7 5.Nd2 Qxc6 6.Qxc6 Bxc6 7.g4 Kd7 8.Bg2 Bd6 9.c4 Rhe8 10.Rc1 Rab8 11.cxd5 Nxd5
= (0.03) Depth: 19 00:00:02 10854kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Qd6 3.Qa4 a6 4.Nxc6 Bd7 5.Nd2 Qxc6 6.Qxc6 Bxc6 7.g4 Kd7 8.Bg2 Bd6 9.c4 Rhe8 10.Rc1 Rab8 11.cxd5 Nxd5
= (0.03) Depth: 19 00:00:03 16053kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Qd6 3.Qa4 a6 4.Nxc6 Bd7 5.Nd2 h5 6.Qb3 Bxc6 7.c4 Qe6 8.Rc1 Rd8 9.g3 Bd6 10.Bg2 Kf8 11.cxd5 Bxd5
= (0.03) Depth: 20 00:00:04 23232kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Qd6 3.Qa4 a6 4.Nxc6 Bd7 5.Nd2 h5 6.Qb3 Bxc6 7.c4 Qe6 8.Rc1 Rd8 9.g3 Bd6 10.Bg2 Kf8 11.cxd5 Bxd5
= (0.03) Depth: 20 00:00:06 29816kN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Qd6 3.Qa4 a6 4.Nxc6 Bd7 5.Qc2 Qxc6 6.g4 Bd6 7.Nd2 Ke7 8.g5 Nh5 9.Rc1 Nf4 10.c4 b6 11.cxd5 Qxc2 12.Rxc2 Nxd5 13.Nxe4 Nxe3 14.fxe3
= (-0.05 --) Depth: 21 00:00:21 108mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Be7 3.Qa4 Bd7 4.Nxd7 Nxd7 5.Nd2 Nb6 6.Qc2 Kf8 7.g3 Bg5 8.Bxg5 Qxg5 9.h4 Qf6 10.g4 Qf4 11.g5 Qg4 12.Bh3 Qxh4
= (-0.04) Depth: 21 00:00:22 114mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Be7 3.Qa4 Bd7 4.Nxd7 Nxd7 5.Nd2 Nb6 6.Qc2 Kf8 7.g3 Bg5 8.Bxg5 Qxg5 9.h4 Qf6 10.g4 Qf4 11.g5 Qg4 12.Bh3 Qxh4
= (-0.04) Depth: 21 00:00:22 114mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Be7 3.g4 h6 4.Nd2 Kf8 5.c4 dxc4 6.Nxc6 bxc6 7.Bg2 h5 8.g5 Nd5 9.h4 Rb8 10.Nxc4 Nxe3 11.fxe3 Bb4+ 12.Kf2 Qd5 13.Qc2 Qf5+ 14.Kg1
= (-0.03) Depth: 22 00:00:25 133mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Be7 3.g4 h6 4.Nd2 Kf8 5.c4 dxc4 6.Nxc6 bxc6 7.Bg2 h5 8.g5 Nd5 9.h4 Rb8 10.Nxc4 Nxe3 11.fxe3 Bb4+ 12.Kf2 Qd5 13.Qc2 Qf5+ 14.Kg1
= (-0.03) Depth: 22 00:00:40 211mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Be7 3.Qa4 Bd7 4.Nxd7 Nxd7 5.Nd2 Kf8 6.f3 Nb6 7.Qc2 exf3 8.Nxf3 Bd6 9.Bf2 Kg8 10.b4 h6 11.e3 Nc4 12.Bxc4 dxc4 13.Rf1
= (-0.10) Depth: 23 00:00:54 288mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Be7 3.Qa4 Bd7 4.Nxd7 Nxd7 5.Nd2 Kf8 6.f3 Nb6 7.Qc2 exf3 8.Nxf3 Bd6 9.Bf2 Kg8 10.b4 h6 11.e3 Nc4 12.Bxc4 dxc4 13.Rf1
= (-0.10) Depth: 23 00:01:34 495mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Be7 3.Qa4 Bd7 4.Nxd7 Nxd7 5.Nd2 Kf8 6.g3 Nb6 7.Qc2 Bg5 8.Bxg5 Qxg5 9.a4 a5 10.h4 Qf6 11.Nb3 Kg8 12.Nc5 Nc4 13.b3 Nd6
= (-0.06) Depth: 24 00:02:12 706mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Be7 3.Qa4 Bd7 4.Nxd7 Nxd7 5.Nd2 Kf8 6.g3 Nb6 7.Qc2 Bg5 8.Bxg5 Qxg5 9.a4 a5 10.h4 Qf6 11.Nb3 Kg8 12.Nc5 Nc4 13.b3 Nd6
= (-0.06) Depth: 24 00:02:25 771mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Be7 3.Qa4 Bd7 4.Nxd7 Nxd7 5.Nd2 Kf8 6.g3 Nb6 7.Qc2 Bg5 8.Bxg5 Qxg5 9.h4 Qf6 10.a4 a5 11.Nb3 e3 12.f4 Nc4 13.Bg2 Ne7 14.Nc5
= (-0.14 --) Depth: 25 00:08:58 2896mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Ne7 3.Bf4 Ng6 4.Bh2 c6 5.e3 Bd6 6.c4 Qc7 7.Nxg6 hxg6 8.Bxd6 Qxd6 9.Qb3 Kf8 10.cxd5 cxd5 11.Qa3 Qxa3 12.Nxa3 a6 13.Rc1 g5 14.Rc7 Ne8 15.Rc5 Be6 16.Nc2 Nd6 17.Rc7 Rc8
= (-0.09) Depth: 25 00:10:33 3407mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Ne7 3.Bf4 Ng6 4.Bh2 c6 5.e3 Bd6 6.c4 Qc7 7.Nxg6 hxg6 8.Bxd6 Qxd6 9.Qb3 Kf8 10.cxd5 cxd5 11.Qa3 Qxa3 12.Nxa3 a6 13.Rc1 g5 14.Rc7 Ne8 15.Rc5 Be6 16.Nc2 Nd6 17.Rc7 Rc8
= (-0.09) Depth: 25 00:10:33 3407mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Ne7 3.Bf4 Ng6 4.Bh2 c6 5.e3 Bd6 6.Qb3 Qc7 7.Nxg6 hxg6 8.Bxd6 Qxd6 9.c4 a6 10.Nc3 Kf8 11.Qb6 Kg8 12.Qc5 Qxc5 13.dxc5 Be6 14.cxd5 Bxd5 15.Rd1 Rd8 16.Bc4
= (-0.10) Depth: 26 00:11:12 3618mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Ne7 3.Bf4 Ng6 4.Bh2 c6 5.e3 Bd6 6.Qb3 Qc7 7.Nxg6 hxg6 8.Bxd6 Qxd6 9.c4 a6 10.Nc3 Kf8 11.Qb6 Kg8 12.Qc5 Qxc5 13.dxc5 Be6 14.cxd5 Bxd5 15.Rd1 Rd8 16.Bc4
= (-0.10) Depth: 26 00:12:00 3876mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Ne7 3.Bf4 Ng6 4.Bh2 c6 5.e3 Bd6 6.Qb3 Qc7 7.Nxg6 hxg6 8.Bxd6 Qxd6 9.c4 a6 10.Nc3 Kf8 11.Qb6 Kg8 12.Be2 dxc4 13.Bxc4 Rh5 14.Rd1 Qe7 15.Rf1 a5 16.d5 cxd5 17.Bxd5
= (-0.18 --) Depth: 27 00:33:23 10679mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Ne7 3.Bf4 c6 4.e3 Nfg8 5.f3 f6 6.Ng4 Ng6 7.Bh2 exf3 8.Qxf3 h5 9.Nf2 Bd6 10.Bxd6 Qxd6 11.Nd3 Nh4 12.Qf4 Qxf4 13.exf4 Kf7 14.Kf2 Bf5 15.Nd2 Re8 16.Be2 Bxd3 17.Bxd3
= (-0.15) Depth: 27 00:34:00 10877mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Ne7 3.Bf4 c6 4.e3 Nfg8 5.f3 f6 6.Ng4 Ng6 7.Bh2 exf3 8.Qxf3 h5 9.Nf2 Bd6 10.Bxd6 Qxd6 11.Nd3 Nh4 12.Qf4 Qxf4 13.exf4 Kf7 14.Kf2 Bf5 15.Nd2 Re8 16.Be2 Bxd3 17.Bxd3
= (-0.15) Depth: 27 00:34:00 10880mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Ne7 3.Bf4 c6 4.e3 Nfg8 5.f3 f6 6.Ng4 Ng6 7.Bh2 exf3 8.Qxf3 h5 9.Nf2 Bd6 10.Bxd6 Qxd6 11.Nd3 Nh4 12.Qf4 Qxf4 13.Nxf4 g5 14.Nd3 Ne7 15.Nd2 Kf7 16.Kf2 Bf5 17.Be2 Bxd3 18.Bxd3 Nef5 19.e4
= (-0.17) Depth: 28 00:37:22 11977mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Ne7 3.Bf4 c6 4.e3 Nfg8 5.f3 f6 6.Ng4 Ng6 7.Bh2 exf3 8.Qxf3 h5 9.Nf2 Bd6 10.Bxd6 Qxd6 11.Nd3 Nh4 12.Qf4 Qxf4 13.Nxf4 g5 14.Nd3 Ne7 15.Nd2 Kf7 16.Kf2 Bf5 17.Be2 Bxd3 18.Bxd3 Nef5 19.e4
= (-0.17) Depth: 28 00:51:03 16403mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Ne7 3.Bf4 c6 4.e3 Nfg8 5.f3 f6 6.Ng4 Ng6 7.Bh2 exf3 8.Qxf3 Bd6 9.Nd2 Bxh2 10.Nxh2 Kf7 11.Bd3 N8e7 12.Kf2 Re8 13.Rhf1 Kg8 14.Kg1 Qd6 15.Qh5 Be6 16.Nhf3
= (-0.15) Depth: 29 00:58:30 18854mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Ne7 3.Bf4 c6 4.e3 Nfg8 5.f3 f6 6.Ng4 Ng6 7.Bh2 exf3 8.Qxf3 Bd6 9.Nd2 Bxh2 10.Nxh2 Kf7 11.Bd3 N8e7 12.Kf2 Re8 13.Rhf1 Kg8 14.Kg1 Qd6 15.Qh5 Be6 16.Nhf3
= (-0.15) Depth: 29 01:11:29 23083mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Ne7 3.Bf4 c6 4.Qb3 Ng6 5.Bh2 Nxe5 6.Bxe5 Bd6 7.Bxd6 Qxd6 8.e3 Kf8 9.Qb4 Ne8 10.a3 a5 11.Qc5 Qxc5 12.dxc5 Be6 13.c4 Ke7 14.cxd5 Bxd5 15.Nc3 Nc7 16.Rd1 Rhd8 17.Be2
= (-0.16) Depth: 30 01:28:40 28718mN

1.Nf3 e4 2.Ne5 Ne7 3.Bf4 c6 4.Qb3 Ng6 5.Bh2 Nxe5 6.Bxe5 Bd6 7.Bxd6 Qxd6 8.e3 Kf8 9.Qb4 Ne8 10.a3 a5 11.Qc5 Qxc5 12.dxc5 Be6 13.c4 Ke7 14.cxd5 Bxd5 15.Nc3 Nc7 16.Rd1 Rhd8 17.Be2
= (-0.16) Depth: 30 02:10:07 42309mN

[kingliveson]

64 MB Hash and 8 MB PawnsHash. Not that off from the other run with depth 10 and 10k games.

Monte Carlo Result

Move: d4e5
Occurrence: 10093
1-0: 839 = 8.31%
1/2-1/2: 6061 = 60.05%
0-1: 3193 = 31.64%
--------------
Move: g1f3
Occurrence: 10109
1-0: 1216 = 12.03%
1/2-1/2: 6178 = 61.11%
0-1: 2715 = 26.86%
--------------
*Final Result*

Games: 20202
1-0: 2055 = 10.17%
1/2-1/2: 12239 = 60.58%
0-1: 5908 =  29.24%
--------------
position fen r1bqkb1r/ppp2ppp/2n2n2/3pp3/3P4/2P1B2P/PP2PPP1/RN1QKBNR w - - 0 1
go montecarlo cpus 4 depth 12 moves g1f3 d4e5

From the table:

Code: Select all

       0.10         54.3 %   
       0.20         58.5 %  

Eval in post above is .16 for g1f3 so 57.41% is right on the mark, translating to ~52 ELO.

I am hoping down the line IvanHoe (GUI perhaps) would implement such feature that stats (tree) is also created for each subsequent move.