Computers will solve chess in 200 years.

[Hagen]

Now what? I read an article suggesting computers will solve chess within 200 years. Maybe less depending on the advances in computer technology. In other words, endgame tablebases will reach opening theory and at this point there will be no reason to play chess anymore. This means every move from beginning to end will have been analyzed by the computer and given an assessment telling the user whether the move will be a win, loss or draw. Given the high rate of drawn games in master play now...assuming both players wanted to win and both sides play perfectly accurately...the rate of draws will climb dramatically. Imagine Topalov and Anand playing non stop even until the posting of this message and every result is a drawn endgame...something drastic has to be done to unbalance chess in order to save it.

What I'm confused about this assessment that computers will solve chess is whether this means *any* setup of pieces on the chessboard...including those of FRC or Chess960.

[LetoAtreides82]

Even if it's solved there are too many opening variations for a human to memorize them all.

[Uly]

The only thing that will change is the way games are analyzed postmortem, now you'll be able to see precisely what were the losing moves of the games after being played.

Currently computers just say "the move you played was 0.50 worse than what I'd have played!", but is it really so? Objectively the game only has 3 outcomes, lose, draw or win, so this 0.50 is a subjective evaluation. If both moves lead to a draw with perfect play then the computer shouldn't be punishing you. It's even possible that your move is best (in the sense that finding the drawing moves OTB is difficult for the opponent) but the computer did not understand it.

So seeing the truth will certainly help with that.

But having chess solved won't change the fact that a player 400 elo stronger than me will beat me 90.9% of the time, so the game would not be dead.

Computer chess and Correspondence chess would die, but not OTB chess.

[hyatt]

Now what? I read an article suggesting computers will solve chess within 200 years. Maybe less depending on the advances in computer technology. In other words, endgame tablebases will reach opening theory and at this point there will be no reason to play chess anymore. This means every move from beginning to end will have been analyzed by the computer and given an assessment telling the user whether the move will be a win, loss or draw. Given the high rate of drawn games in master play now...assuming both players wanted to win and both sides play perfectly accurately...the rate of draws will climb dramatically. Imagine Topalov and Anand playing non stop even until the posting of this message and every result is a drawn endgame...something drastic has to be done to unbalance chess in order to save it.

What I'm confused about this assessment that computers will solve chess is whether this means *any* setup of pieces on the chessboard...including those of FRC or Chess960.

Not going to happen. Computers may reach the point where they can't be beaten, even in a single game (by humans). But the tree is too big. Speeds have dropped off from the double every 18 months. Unless there is some miracle in chess where there is a forced win in 30 moves (only a 60 ply search needed and no reducing the wrong moves, etc.) then this is really not going to happen. So far, the best anyone has done as far as encoding a position is about 160 bits. That means 2^160 different positions. Add into that the different paths possible beteween any two unique positions, and it is a daunting problem. 2^32 positions is 4 billion. 2^64 is 16,000,000,000,000,000,000 positions. We can't touch that today, nor in 10 years. And that is still a tiny fraction of the total positions that exist. 2^160 = roughly 10^48 positions. at 100M nps, which is fast today, you need 10^40 seconds. = roughly 4 x 10^40 years. To get that down to one year of calculation, you need a _bunch_ of processor speed doublings. Daunting numbers...

[Peter]

Unless there is some miracle in chess where there is a forced win in 30 moves (only a 60 ply search needed and no reducing the wrong moves, etc.) then this is really not going to happen.

What about a forced remis in 30 moves?

[Pawel Koziol]

Well, I have a little short story from 2007, loosely connected with playing chess form a perspective when You know the theoretical result and the ways to reach it

(BTW, Polish original had another twist - last lines mentioned Timman as a coach of the chess team of Trinidad and Tobago. In 2007, Polish national football team has been led by Leo Beernhaker, famous for his prior achievement of leaving a group with Trinidad and Tobago):

Ruy Lopez seemed rather agitated. His restless fingers repeteadly toyed with an evenly cut Spanish beard or manipulated with a heavy golden cross, hanging on a hollow breast clothed in aristocratic black. At last he ventured to ask:
- But why me? You must be able to find someone better than me.
- It's not so easy - replied God. - Fischer presented his pre-match conditions in no less than 300 paragraphs, the first of which openly states that none of the parties involved will be aided by the Russians. Beside that I wouldn't enjoy releasing that ateist Botvinnik from hell.
- Botvinnik? What the hell is he doing there? - Ruy Lopez, though well-aquaintained with the developement of the royal game after his death, still preferred singing psalms to exploring gory details of other chess player's afterlife.
- The same as during his lifetime - he keeps programming and lying about his accomplishments. But I must admit that his Black Pioneer 0.666 did some progress recently. Its score against Rybka improved from 0.09 to 0.18 percent, and the poor soul wonders whether it is a 50% leap in strength or a statistical error.
- Indeed, it's not the best recomendation for a second - Ruy Lopez weighted his words carefully - but strictly speaking I'm not entirely sure that Petrosian can be called a Russian.

The sky grew dark, and the 7-dimensional fractals made of lightnings appeared on the firmament, when The Lord of Hosts quoted the ex-world champion saying that he doesn't like the moments when God plays with his pieces. Later the skies grew calm again, in the meantime displaying relatively peaceful image of a flaming bush, under which the desert sand melted into pure quartz. Then Lord's voice continued in a more restrained manner:

- In one of the paragraphs of the pre-match agreement Fischer imposed upon me an inclusive definition of a Russian: Georgians, Jews, Lithuanians, be glad it doesn't apply to You. My first choice would be Tal, but enforcing it would be... ekhem... unsportive.

Ruy Lopez had a feeling that it's high time for serious questions:

- Master, but why do You think You need a second?
- In the matches at this level having a second is more or less mandatory. Beside that... You ought to know by now that theoretical outcome of the game of chess is a draw, which is simply not enough for my prestige. For that reason that few billions of The Ideal Games which I know are of no use... Though I'd be tempted to choose some variation of PSP.
- PS what?
- Pseudo-Suicidal Philidor, in which Black would get mated exactly one ply after a draw by 50-move rule is enforced. It requires a perfect defense of two knights against a queen, conducted in a difficult situation, which in turn has to be enforced by a stunning series of exchange sacrifices... Fischer would understand that it's set up right from the beginning, but I'll show it to him later. Right now I need a point.
- If I'm not mistaken, then Your Excellence is not entirely sure of gaining it.
- Well said. Fischer is capable of playing The Ideal Game. You must have seen how he played in 1971. He was virtually unbeatable. And You know why? Playing Black against the best of grandmasters, he was capable of transposing into Ideal Games with colors reversed, and then playing several moves according to the pattern. Yet we both know that he couldn't have been aware of the pattern itself.

Ruy Lopez sank into thought.

- From what I gather, You need an opening for Black after which Fischer will be tempted to avoid The Ideal Game?
- That's the reason why I need You as a second. You have a natural ability for approaching the problem from the right side. Without that, You wouldn't have invented that pretty little opening...
- And I wouldn't have to see this kids devoid of talent, forced to play it by overambitious parents. But why can't You play the Sveshnikow? Fischer didn't have that much experience in playing against this setup.
- And for that very reason he will not allow meto play it. After 3.Bb5 I have even less Ideal Games at my disposal than in the main line of your invention. And they are not that difficult to find for White.
- What else do we have to exclude?
- Sicilian Dragon. Fischer knew how to slay it, so I'd be reduced to playing Ideal Game. All the main lines of the Sicilian are of no use. He was right claiming that he would be better off after Bc4.
- But there must be a sensible defense...
- It's not enough. White must be considered better when the number of Ideal Games at Black's disposal drops below...
- So we're down to Ultimate Chess once again...
- Forget The Ultimate Chess, think like a human. I need an earthly, psychological solution.
- Well, Fischer used to play some rubbish against Caro-Kann: e4, Nf3, Nc3...
- Only in his youth. Now he would come up with something better.
- Some people were quite happy when adopting French against him.
- I crossed it out from my list. Looks too much like going for a draw, even though Fischer wouldn't exchange at d5 and he avoided the sharpest lines against the Winawer. Still I don't like the stuff that is left.
- Fischer preferred slow build-up against French.
- And I don't wish to face it.
- Play the Pirc then.
- That funny opening that looks like a screenplay of a Chech movie? Come on...

Ruy Lopez smiled for the first time:

- That's what we are looking for! He will think the same, then he will feel obliged to overpress, and we got him!

God smiled, too. On Earth the expression of his face would be classified as ironic.
- Well, I thought along the same lines, only about entirely different opening. Remember what You just said about all that unhappy children labouring under the burden of your opening?

Ruy Lopez couldn't forget. For centuries he learned to regard this subject as his chief psychological problem in heaven. Thinking about all those horrible games he winced internally, which of course didn't pass unnoticed by the Almighty Eye. God went on:

- In on the II World Junior Team Championship in 2013 a representative of Free Basque Country, whose team will be led by Miguel Illescas, will play the following novelty on move 27 of what will be regarded as a main line at the time.

Ruy Lopez' face grew pale and filled with horror.

- Show that to me...

[hyatt]

Unless there is some miracle in chess where there is a forced win in 30 moves (only a 60 ply search needed and no reducing the wrong moves, etc.) then this is really not going to happen.

What about a forced remis in 30 moves?

As I said, a forced win in 60 plies _might_ be reachable. But would you accept a forced draw without proving that all other alternatives are forced losses???

[Peter]

Unless there is some miracle in chess where there is a forced win in 30 moves (only a 60 ply search needed and no reducing the wrong moves, etc.) then this is really not going to happen.

What about a forced remis in 30 moves?

As I said, a forced win in 60 plies _might_ be reachable. But would you accept a forced draw without proving that all other alternatives are forced losses???

Hi Bob!
Don't get your point. Forced remis is forced because there are no alternatives as well as this is so for a forced win, isn't it?
You have to exclude all alternatives as well for the win as for the draw. There may be more variants drawing (especially together with those of uncertain outcome too) to confute in some positions to proof it won or it may be the other way round in positions of certain draw as forced end

[Uly]

Suppose there's a drawing strategy by white, that starts with d4, then from this side, you can prune e4, Nf3 and the other moves, you don't need a solution for them from this side, you'd only need the drawing path from black against them, which again, supposing 1...c6 draws, you can skip the Sicilian, Ruy Lopez, and all that from the black side.

Solutions for a lot of theory would be ignored, you'd just have to keep a database of the drawing path, though it would remain enormous, of course.

Interesting are the cases when the opponent plays a losing move that tries to leave the "drawbases", in such cases the drawbases would only focus in transposing back to drawn positions, and only include easy wins in case the opponent loses on purpose, but solving all the won positions would ruin the concept.

Something like that is being tried at

http://finaltheoryofchess.game-server.c ... l_Position

Too bad it's garbage as Deep Fritz 10 keeps misevaluating critical positions, as you follow the main lines you'd find out that Rybka 3 thinks the position that Deep Fritz thinks it's winning is actually losing, or Deep Fritz just ignores the best response and is left "out of book".

[hyatt]

Unless there is some miracle in chess where there is a forced win in 30 moves (only a 60 ply search needed and no reducing the wrong moves, etc.) then this is really not going to happen.

What about a forced remis in 30 moves?

As I said, a forced win in 60 plies _might_ be reachable. But would you accept a forced draw without proving that all other alternatives are forced losses???

Hi Bob!
Don't get your point. Forced remis is forced because there are no alternatives as well as this is so for a forced win, isn't it?
You have to exclude all alternatives as well for the win as for the draw. There may be more variants drawing (especially together with those of uncertain outcome too) to confute in some positions to proof it won or it may be the other way round in positions of certain draw as forced end

O can't imagine a "forced remis." What would that be? Even the 50 move rule is optional. And for 3-fold repetition, one side has the option of not repeating. So the concept of a forced draw seems impossible since one side _always_ has an option to look for something better.