Winning chances
Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 11:34 pm
Suppose that I have some position which I can attain a draw if I want, but I really need a win (e.g. a contest where a win will allow me to win the contest and a draw will not.)
In such a situation, I will want to choose a move with winning chances, if any such move exists. A classical example might be WAC.230:
2b5/1r6/2kBp1p1/p2pP1P1/2pP4/1pP3K1/1R3P2/8 b - - bm Rb4; id "WAC.230";
Here is another possible example:
6k1/6pp/pp6/2p1Qp1q/2Pp1P2/1P1P2P1/P4P2/6K1 b - -
Both g6 and Qd1 are forced draws. The choice h6 has a tiny negative score and it is almost surely a draw as well {Houdini 3 / AQ on multi-pv}:
Is there a robust algorithm for detection of winning chances?
We could just kick out draws, and choose the highest remaining move, but that might lead to a loss.
On the other hand, taking a small risk might lead to a win in a tournament. It seems to me a place for possible application of probability theory.
In such a situation, I will want to choose a move with winning chances, if any such move exists. A classical example might be WAC.230:
2b5/1r6/2kBp1p1/p2pP1P1/2pP4/1pP3K1/1R3P2/8 b - - bm Rb4; id "WAC.230";
Here is another possible example:
6k1/6pp/pp6/2p1Qp1q/2Pp1P2/1P1P2P1/P4P2/6K1 b - -
Both g6 and Qd1 are forced draws. The choice h6 has a tiny negative score and it is almost surely a draw as well {Houdini 3 / AQ on multi-pv}:
Code: Select all
27/61 09:51 4,500,653,479 7,608,000 -0.04 h6 Kg2 Qg6 Kf1 a5 Ke1 Kh7 Qc7 Qe6+ Kf1 Qg6 Kg1 Qe6 Kg2 Qg6 Qd7 Qg4 Qd5 Qg6 Qb7 h5 Qe7 Qc6+ f3 Qg6 Kf2 Qc6 Qf7 Qg6 Qd7 Kg8 Kg2 Kh8 a3 Kh7 Kh2 Qf6 Qe8 Qg6 Qe5 Qf7 Kh3 g6 Kg2 Qb7 a4 Qd7 Kf2 Qb7 Qf6 Qc7 Kg2 Qb7 Kf2 Qc7
27/61 09:51 4,500,653,479 7,608,000 0.00 g6 Qe8+ Kg7 Qe1 Qf3 Qe7+ Kh6 Qf8+ Kh5 Qf6 Qd1+ Kg2 Kh6 Qxb6 Qxd3 Qxc5 Qe4+ Kh2 d3 Kg1 d2 Qf8+ Kh5 Qd8 Qe1+ Kg2 Kh6 Qf8+ Kh5 Qd8 Kh6
28/61 09:51 4,500,653,479 7,608,000 0.00 Qd1+ Kg2 g6 Qe6+ Kg7 Qe7+ Kh6 Qh4+ Kg7 Qe7+ Kh6
We could just kick out draws, and choose the highest remaining move, but that might lead to a loss.
On the other hand, taking a small risk might lead to a win in a tournament. It seems to me a place for possible application of probability theory.