What is the difference between 3.Nc3 and 3.Nf3 in the QGD?

[Marc Benford]

Hello.

I was just wondering, in the Queen's Gambit Declined, after 1. d4 d5 2. c4 e6 (or 2... c6), what is the difference between playing 3. Nc3 and 3. Nf3 ?

I looked in an opening database/explorer :
- After 2... e6, 3. Nc3 is 3 times more popular than 3. Nf3, but 3. Nf3 scores better for white (+43.6% -22.4% for 3. Nf3, versus +42.6% -26.1% for 3. Nc3).
- After 2... c6, 3. Nf3 is 1.5 times more popular than 3. Nc3, and 3. Nf3 also scores better for white (+40.9% -22.5% for 3. Nf3, versus +41.2% -26.3% for 3. Nc3).

Is there really a big difference? Isn't white just going to play both Nf3 and Nc3 anyways?
Which of those two moves do you recommend me to play first? Should I play 3. Nf3 just because it scores better than 3. Nc3 ?
Do each of those two moves allow white to avoid specific variations? If yes, what are those variations?

Thanks in advance for your answers.

[User923005]

For all of these positions, the scores are about the same (not enough to lose sleep over the differences). For each one of them, the most frequently played response is Nf6, and the computer also chooses Nf6 after a decent analysis pass. I would play Nf6, given the choice. If it were for correspondence chess, then I would analyze the positions for at least 24 hours before deciding on what to do. One hour analysis is fine for friendly games, but not for competition.

rnbqkbnr/pp2pppp/2p5/3p4/2PP4/2N5/PP2PPPP/R1BQKBNR b KQkq - acd 34; acs 3601; bm Nf6; cce -41; ce -40; pm Nf6 {31690} e6 {4241} dxc4 {1988} e5 {1322} Bf5 {144} g6 {79} f5 {43} a6 {39} h6 {13} Bg4 {4} Na6 {4} Be6 {3} Nd7 {1} Qd6 {1}; pv Nf6 Nf3 dxc4 a4 Bf5 e3 e6 Bxc4 Nbd7 O-O Bg6 Be2 Bd6 Nh4 a5 f4 Nd5 Nxg6 hxg6 g3 Bb4 Qc2 Qb6 Rd1 Be7 e4 Nb4 Qb3 Kf8 Be3 Nf6; white_wins 12529; black_wins 9368; draws 12222;
rnbqkbnr/pp2pppp/2p5/3p4/2PP4/5N2/PP2PPPP/RNBQKB1R b KQkq - acd 35; acs 3601; bm Nf6; cce -45; ce -36; pm Nf6 {85728} e6 {10440} dxc4 {2703} Bf5 {455} g6 {188} h6 {76} Bg4 {73} a6 {67} f5 {37} Nd7 {27} Na6 {4} f6 {2} Qb6 {1} Qc7 {1} Qd6 {1} b6 {1} e5 {1} h5 {1}; pv Nf6 e3 Bf5 Be2 e6 O-O Nbd7 Nc3 Bg6 Nh4 dxc4 Bxc4 Qc7 f4 O-O-O Bd2 Bb4 Qb3 Be7 Nxg6 hxg6 h3 Kb8 Rfc1 Nb6 Bd3 Nbd5 Na4 Nd7 a3 N7b6 Be2; white_wins 32894; black_wins 23902; draws 31786;
rnbqkbnr/ppp2ppp/4p3/3p4/2PP4/2N5/PP2PPPP/R1BQKBNR b KQkq - acd 34; acs 3478; bm Nf6; cce -41; ce -39; pm Nf6 {40155} c6 {16746} Be7 {11832} c5 {8487} Bb4 {2336} f5 {1010} dxc4 {531} Nc6 {414} a6 {254} b6 {68} h6 {50} Nd7 {23} Bd7 {12} g6 {12} Ne7 {4} Bd6 {2} Qh4 {2} a5 {2} Qd7 {1} e5 {1} f6 {1}; pv Nf6 Nf3 c5 cxd5 Nxd5 e4 Nxc3; white_wins 25571; black_wins 19064; draws 25032;
rnbqkbnr/ppp2ppp/4p3/3p4/2PP4/5N2/PP2PPPP/RNBQKB1R b KQkq - acd 33; acs 3070; bm Nf6; cce -52; ce -28; pm Nf6 {29801} c6 {10345} c5 {5362} dxc4 {4062} Be7 {817} f5 {436} Nc6 {356} a6 {284} Nd7 {278} Bb4+ {152} b6 {133} Bd6 {9} g6 {6} h6 {4} Ne7 {3} Bd7 {1} a5 {1} f6 {1}; pv Nf6 Nc3 Bb4 cxd5 exd5 Qb3 a5 Bg5 O-O a3 Bxc3+ Qxc3 c6 e3 Bf5 Bd3 Bxd3 Qxd3 Nbd7 O-O h6 Bh4 Qb6 Bxf6 Nxf6 Ne5 Rfe8; white_wins 16529; black_wins 11455; draws 15735;

In the pm list, the curly braces contain the number of times the given move was played. The field cce is an approximation of ce that is calculated based upon the actual game results.